EMA Airport expansion Unrealistic in view of Comin, EMA

Diminishing oil reserves will curtail air traffic in a decade or so, and the suggested expansion of airports and associated runways is likely to lead to a surplus of capacity. It is not just a question of price or affordability. An exponentially increasing annual amount of jet fuel when extracted from a declining quantity of crude oil at lower yields will accelerate the emptying of the reserves.

When in 2002, the UK Department of Transport announced a consultation on airport runway capacity, it was assumed that the usage of air transport will double by 2015 and triple by 2030. This is achieved by an exponential annual growth in air traffic of 5.5% until 2015 or 4% over the entire period to 2030.

The growth in air traffic envisaged will not be attained as the oil producers will restrict production to conserve their inventory throughout the time span envisaged. Although the synthesis of jet fuel from natural gas or coal is possible, there is no potential substitute for oil-based jet fuel capable of supporting the prospective size of the industry.

In recognition of this fuel problem, Airbus (see reference below) is developing a modification strategy, whereby liquid hydrogen produced by electrolysis and cryogenic liquefaction is substituted for jet fuel. This requires a hydrogen infrastructure based on the availability of enormous amounts of electrical power. It also means that aircraft have to be specially adapted to run on liquid hydrogen fuel.

Only flights between airports with supplies of liquid hydrogen would be possible and flights diverted to airports without such a facility would be stranded. In turn supplies of liquid hydrogen depend on an availability of local hydro or geothermal power as might be sufficient in New Zealand or Iceland respectively.